MULTILEVEL ECONOMIC MECHANISM FOR ASSESSING UKRAINE'S ENERGY SECURITY IN THE CONTEXT OF WAR AND GLOBAL TRANSFORMATIONS

Abstract

The relevance of the study is driven by the large-scale transformation of the operating environment of Ukraine's energy sector due to Russian armed aggression, the destruction of a significant part of generating capacities, and the simultaneous strengthening of global requirements for decarbonization and energy transition. Under such conditions, traditional approaches to assessing energy security, based primarily on technical or resource indicators, lose their analytical sufficiency. There is a growing need to form a comprehensive mechanism capable of integrating military, economic, institutional, and environmental factors into a single assessment system. The purpose of the study is the theoretical substantiation and development of a multilevel economic mechanism for assessing Ukraine's energy security, which provides a comprehensive analysis of the impact of military risks, macroeconomic shocks, and sustainable development requirements on the functioning of the state's energy system. The expediency of transitioning from a predominantly centralized generation model to the development of decentralized energy systems, commercial microgrids, and battery energy storage systems is substantiated. The authors propose an original model of the integral energy security index, which aggregates thirteen interconnected indicators characterizing resource provision, infrastructure reliability, energy efficiency level, supply diversification degree, and institutional capacity of the sector. It has been established that the indicators of import dependence, network infrastructure reliability, and the availability of reserve capacities have the greatest impact on the integral assessment. The calculation results for 2022-2024 indicate a gradual restoration of the functional resilience of the energy system after large-scale destruction, although the level of its structural vulnerability remains high. At the same time, significant risks were identified associated with the implementation of the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), as well as existing corporate governance problems in the state energy sector. The practical value of the study lies in the possibility of using the proposed mechanism by state authorities to transition from reactive crisis management to systematic risk management and strategic planning for the development of the energy sector.