Does rural land transfer promote high-quality agriculture development? Empirical evidence from 30 provinces in China

Abstract

As a fundamental pathway toward agricultural-scale operations, rural land transfer (RLT) has emerged as an important institutional mechanism for promoting high-quality agricultural development (HQAD). However, how to effectively unleash the productive potential of land resources and align RLT with the objectives of high-quality development remains an important research question. Treating the 2010 national regulatory intensification of rural land transfer as a common policy milestone, this study employs a continuous difference-in-differences (DID) model and a mediating effect model to examine the relationship between RLT intensity and HQAD and to explore the potential transmission role of new agricultural business entities (NABE). The results show that the overall level of HQAD in China has steadily improved, although substantial spatial and temporal disparities remain, with HQAD generally decreasing from the eastern to the central and western regions. The continuous DID estimates indicate a significant positive association between RLT intensity and HQAD after the 2010 national regulatory-intensification milestone, and this relationship remains stable across the reported robustness checks. The mediation analysis provides evidence consistent with a potential transmission pathway through new agricultural business entities (NABE). Furthermore, the estimated association between RLT intensity and HQAD is stronger in the central region and in non-major grain-producing areas.