MODELING THE CHANNELS OF INFLUENCE OF THE REAL ESTATE MARKET ON THE NATIONAL ECONOMY

Abstract

The article investigates the scientific problem of modeling the impact of the real estate market on the national economy. The purpose of the study is to assess the responses of key macroeconomic variables - the level of inflation, real wages, the exchange rate of the national currency and unemployment - to changes in supply in the real estate market. For this purpose, an algorithm for estimating aggregate supply in the real estate market is substantiated and practically implemented, based on data from the System of National Accounts (SNA). The object of the study is the impact of the real estate market on key macroeconomic parameters of the national economy. The subject of the study is the channels through which the real estate market influences the national economy. The study uses the VAR analysis toolkit. Based on the constructed VAR model, conclusions are drawn about the existence of a certain transmission channel for transmitting impulses from the supply in the real estate market to other macroeconomic variables. The channel for transmitting impulses from the real estate market is substantiated, based on actual Ukrainian data for the 54th quarter. This channel is verified using basic macroeconomic theories about the relationships between key macroeconomic variables. In the process of research, general scientific methods were used: a systemic approach - when substantiating a set of macroeconomic indicators that perceive an impulse from the real estate market, an approach to verifying the obtained modeling results based on theoretical concepts (ideas). The main tool of applied econometric analysis, which is used in the process of research, is vector autoregression. The article illustrates the cycle of implementing vector autoregression in compliance with the main stages of building a VAR model. Based on the analysis, conclusions were formulated about the nature and intensity of the relationship between the supply on the real estate market, on the one hand, and four key macroeconomic variables, on the other. The sequence of responses of these macroeconomic variables to the impulse from the real estate market is substantiated. The practical significance of the study is that the conclusions drawn can be used in preparing decisions in the field of macroeconomic policy related to the functioning of the Ukrainian real estate market.