Urban Expansion and Agricultural Land Use Change in Robe Town, Southeastern Ethiopia: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis Using Geospatial Technique

Abstract

Rapid urbanization in Ethiopia’s emerging towns, including Robe, has intensified pressure on surrounding agricultural lands; unchecked expansion there is converting farmland, threatening food security, livelihoods, ecosystem services, and outpacing planning and land-management. This study examines the spatio-temporal dynamics of urban expansion and its impacts on agricultural land use in Robe town, southeastern Ethiopia. Landsat imagery from 1996 (TM), 2006 (ETM+), and 2016 and 2023 (OLI) was analyzed to map land-use and land-cover changes, complemented by a household survey to capture community perceptions of peri-urban land conversion. Data processing and analysis were conducted using QGIS 3.16, ERDAS Imagine 2015, and IDRISI V.17. Findings show that built-up areas expanded from 619.03 ha (6.55%) in 1996 to 2089.27 ha (22.11%) in 2023, while agricultural land declined from 7959.06 ha (84.21%) in 1996 to 6482.52 ha (68.59%) over the same period. Projections indicate that built-up land will increase to 2810.17 ha (29.73%) in 2030, 3698.38 ha (39.13%) in 2040, and 4026.34 (42.60%) ha in 2050, accompanied by a corresponding reduction in agricultural land to 5866.56 ha (62.07%), 5101.20 ha (53.98%), and 4770.27 ha (50.47), respectively. Findings demonstrate a persistent trend of farmland loss driven by rapid urban expansion. The study underscores the need for integrated urban planning and sustainable land management strategies to curb agricultural land conversion and guide balanced urban development.