СТРУКТУРНАЯ ТРАНСФОРМАЦИЯ ТОПЛИВНО-ЭНЕРГЕТИЧЕСКОГО КОМПЛЕКСА УЗБЕКИСТАНА: ОТ ГАЗОВОЙ ЗАВИСИМОСТИ К ДИВЕРСИФИЦИРОВАННОЙ МОДЕЛИ ГЕНЕРАЦИИ

Abstract

The paper examines structural shifts in electricity generation and primary fuel production in Uzbekistan in 2022-2025. Drawing on data from the National Statistics Committee and the Ministry of Energy, it shows that the 2025 increase in power output (to 84.8 TWh) came entirely from small producers, mainly solar and wind plants, while output of large, predominantly gas-fired plants fell by 11.4%. Oil production continued to decline and natural gas output levelled off at about 42 bcm, well below earlier strategic targets. Discrepancies between ministerial and statistical data are identified. The paper argues for a policy shift from capacity expansion towards system flexibility and outlines directions for improving the economic mechanism of the sector.