Assessment and Forecasting of Human Capital in the Agricultural Sector of India

Abstract

India is among the most significant global economies, and human capital is one of the country’s most important resources. According to forecasts, in 2026–2029, the country’s economy is expected to maintain high growth rates — of more than 6 % — thanks in part to its significant demographic potential. Today, India ranks fi rst in the world in terms of population; in 2025, it was home to about 1.5 billion people (approximately 17–18 % of the world’s population). Despite the slowing rate of natural population growth, according to FAO forecasts, by 2050 the number of people in India will reach 1.7 billion. The rapid population growth in India is one of the significant factors driving the dynamic development of the agricultural sector. Agriculture is the largest employer in India, providing employment for about half of the population. Rural areas, where the majority of the population lives, are particularly dependent on agricultural activities, which directly links the efficiency of the agricultural sector to the socio economic well being of millions of people. In the context of national needs, as well as against the backdrop of the rapid introduction of innovative technologies in the agricultural sector, the growth of urbanization, and the significant influx of young people (aged 15–24) into the labour market, the assessment and forecasting of human capital in India’s agricultural sector are of strategic importance for the country. The article examines the main problems in the formation of human capital in India, highlights the key areas for developing the country’s human resources in the agricultural sector, and presents India’s experience in assessing and forecasting human capital in its agricultural sector.