A realist-constructivist framework for explaining change in strategic culture: The four pathways model

Abstract

Research on strategic culture has generated rich case studies of continuity and change, yet explanations of strategic cultural change remain undertheorised. Existing accounts often privilege crises and shocks as primary triggers, while offering limited theoretical insight into the interaction among drivers, the agents involved and the mechanisms through which change unfolds. The paper develops a realist-constructivist framework – resting on a selective synthesis of neoclassical realism and modernist constructivism – for explaining change in national strategic cultures in Europe and beyond. It unpacks strategic culture into five dimensions and proposes three criteria – scope, depth and speed – for measuring cultural change over time. Drawing on illustrative European evidence, it identifies four pathways of change: national security crises, international environmental change, elite change and societal change. These pathways can generate functional, cognitive and affective tensions which, when sufficiently acute, produce strategic cultural dilemmas. Strategic cultural change is conceptualised as a long-term, dynamic, contested and contingent process shaped by the interaction between cultural change agents and structural inertia. It manifests in three forms: incremental adaptation, multi-speed reconfiguration and high-speed transformation. The paper advances four hypotheses regarding the conditions and prospects of strategic cultural change.