Unlocking Climate Mitigation in BRICS: The Role of Economic and Technological Drivers
Abstract
The study uses Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling to analyze the dynamic link between carbon emissions and economic and environmental factors. Agriculture, energy consumption, financial development, forestry, economic expansion, and ICT are used to assess short- and long-term environmental impacts. The Panel data set for the period of 1991-2022 for BRICS Economies was used for estimation. Strong emissions persistence and important short-term changes toward long-run equilibrium are shown empirically. Energy consumption is the main cause of environmental deterioration over both time periods, indicating structural dependency on energy-intensive manufacturing processes. Short-term findings show that agriculture and forestry reduce emissions, but financial development raises environmental strain. Economic development and ICT have little direct impact. Long-term projections show that agriculture and energy use raise emissions, while forestry conservation and technology enhance the environment. Long-term consequences of financial development and GDP are insignificant. The error correction process verifies convergence toward equilibrium, although adjustment is sluggish. Diagnostics confirm model stability despite heteroscedasticity and non-normal residuals. To reduce emissions and stabilize the climate, combined economic and environmental measures are needed.