The Resilience-Enhancing Effect of Climate Policy Uncertainty Perception: A Capability Driven Mechanism from Enterprises

Abstract

Climate risks drive dynamic adjustments to global climate policies, creating significant climate policy uncertainty (CPU). This uncertainty profoundly affects enterprises’ survival and sustainable development. A key question emerges: how do enterprises’ perception of CPU influence their resilience? To answer this, this study adopts a capability perspective and empirically examines the impact of climate policy uncertainty perception (CPUP) on enterprise resilience (RESI) and the underlying mechanism. Using panel data on Chinese A-share listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2009 to 2023, the study defines CPUP as the interaction between a news-based provincial CPU index and the frequency of climate risk words in annual report texts, and measures RESI with the entropy weight method across four dimensions (business volatility, long-term growth, short-term performance, and enterprise survival). Panel regression with fixed effects indicates that CPUP significantly enhances RESI. A one-standard-deviation increase in CPUP raises RESI by approximately 0.0019 index units, equivalent to about 2.2% of the standard deviation of RESI. This effect is more pronounced for enterprises in the eastern and central regions and in high-carbon industries. Mechanism tests confirm that CPUP boosts RESI by optimizing management capabilities and strengthening development capabilities, revealing a capability-driven path between CPUP and RESI. This study enriches the theoretical understanding of CPU’s economic consequences and RESI antecedents from a capability perspective. It also provides empirical references for enterprises to build resilience amid policy fluctuations and for policymakers to formulate regionally differentiated climate policies.