ФУНКЦІОНАЛЬНИЙ ЗВ'ЯЗОК МІЖ ДЕТЕРМІНАНТАМИ ЛАНЦЮГА «МАКРОЕКОНОМІЧНА СТАБІЛЬНІСТЬ – СТАЛИЙ РОЗВИТОК»: ЕМПІРИЧНА ОЦІНКА ТА ЕКОНОМІЧНА ІНТЕРПРЕТАЦІЯ

Abstract

Sustainable development represents one of the key directions of contemporary socio-economic policy. It requires a coordinated approach to economic growth, social well-being, and environmental protection. The relevance of the study stems from the active implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) across different sectors of the economy, which generally contributes to macroeconomic stability at the global level. The study aims to assess and systematize the functional relationships between the determinants of macroeconomic stability and sustainable development and to determine the strength, direction, and statistical significance of their interactions based on evidence from 26 European countries, including Ukraine, over the period 2016-2025. The article systematizes the main theoretical approaches to identifying the prerequisites for sustainable development and macroeconomic stability. The findings indicate that these prerequisites rely on a combination of economic efficiency, social justice and inclusion, environmental sustainability, and international cooperation. The study proposes a methodological approach to assessing functional relationships between the determinants within the “macroeconomic stability – sustainable development” chain using panel regression analysis. The correlation matrix demonstrates a strong relationship between GDP growth and export growth (r = 0.7337), as well as an extremely strong relationship between import and export volumes (r = 0.9900). The results of the panel regression analysis based on the F-test and p-values confirm the statistical significance of the model and support the use of a fixed-effects model, as country-specific characteristics account for 84.38% of the variation in the Sustainable Development Goals Index. The estimated model parameters, particularly the p-values, indicate statistically significant effects of individual macroeconomic factors on the level of sustainable development. Inflation and exports demonstrate a positive and statistically significant effect on the SDG Index, whereas GDP growth and unemployment exert statistically significant negative effects. The study also provides a qualitative assessment of how European countries implement the Sustainable Development Goals based on the SDG Index. It identifies three groups of benchmark measures for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. The first group represents the institutional and innovation vector and includes Finland, Denmark, Estonia, Ireland, Iceland, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Norway, Czech, and Slovenia. The second group represents the monetary and credit vector and includes Poland, Czech, Slovakia, Belgium, Latvia, and Lithuania. The third group represents the preventive and managerial vector and includes New Zealand, Romania, Serbia, Bulgaria, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Greece, and Ukraine. The practical significance of the findings lies in their potential application to sustainable development monitoring, the identification of priority areas for public policy, and the development of measures aimed at balancing economic, social, and environmental objectives.