Electoral System Failure in Nigeria: A Historical Institutionalist Perspective

Abstract

Nigeria has been unable to conduct a free and fair election devoid of rigging and violence for 49 years (1964-2023) despite having implemented numerous electoral reforms. This puzzles political scientists. The study offers an explanation to this puzzle from Historical Institutionalist perspective. Relying on secondary data from archival materials, academic literature (books and journals) and news media reports I tracked all elections in Nigeria from 1923 to 2023. The sociopolitical context under which those elections were conducted was analyzed in conjunction with the actions of key political actors. The results show that electoral fraud, rigging and violence in Nigeria emerged at a critical juncture and followed a path-dependent self-reinforcing process with many unintended outcomes. As such, the failure of electoral reforms and persistence of electoral fraud is not due to technical failings of the electoral reforms rather is as result of institutional constrains. Broadly the study answers two main questions: how did electoral fraud, violence and rigging evolve in Nigeria and can Historical Institutionalist concepts of critical juncture, path dependency and self-reinforcing mechanisms be identified in this historical process?