Renewing Democracy: How Exposure to Electoral Turnovers Reinforces Citizens' Democratic Support

Abstract

abstract:A prevailing narrative argues that citizens who live under democratic rule take it for granted, potentially leading to democratic backsliding. This article advances a more optimistic perspective, arguing that electoral turnovers—that is, elections that displace the head of government—reinforce democratic support. To test this argument, the author merges multiple international surveys that cover more than 350,000 respondents in seventy-nine countries, matches those surveys with a century's worth of electoral data, and identifies the national electoral turnovers to which each respondent was exposed throughout their life. Cohort analysis shows that exposure to turnovers, especially those that occur after prolonged periods of incumbency, has a positive and lasting effect on democratic support. Further analysis reveals that the effect is positive in a wide range of contexts, but is strongest among citizens who have always lived in a democracy. This finding thus suggests that frequent electoral turnovers are important to renew citizens' support for democracy.