DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL FOR PREDICTING THE RISK OF WORKER FALLS DURING THE OPERATION OF OPEN INDUSTRIAL SITES IN SUBZERO TEMPERATURES

Abstract

Ensuring industrial safety at oil and gas industry facilities in winter is complicated by the increase in injuries associated with falls of workers in open areas. Statistical data and scientific research describe a steady relationship between a decrease in air temperature and an increase in the number of accidents. However, existing occupational health and safety management systems, as a rule, implement a reactive approach and do not take into account the complex effects of low temperatures, icy conditions, the psychophysiological state of personnel and the ergonomic characteristics of personal protective equipment in their dynamic relationship. The article addresses the problem of predicting the risk of worker falls on outdoor industrial sites in the oil and gas industry under subzero temperature conditions. An analysis of factors affecting the probability of injury-causing situations during the winter period was carried out. It was found that the risk of falls is determined by the combined influence of environmental factors, organizational and technical conditions, and the psychophysiological state of the worker. Based on the systematization of the identified factors, a three-level multifactor risk prediction model was developed, including a movement conditions coefficient, an organizational and technical protection coefficient, and a worker psychophysiological state coefficient. A mathematical formalization of the integral fall risk indicator is proposed. To provide a logical interpretation of cause-and-effect relationships between risk factors, a decision tree model was developed, enabling the classification of scenarios according to hazard levels. In addition, the structure of a training dataset was formed for the subsequent application of machine learning methods and the development of an intelligent occupational injury prediction system. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of applying the proposed approach to improve occupational risk management and develop preventive safety measures for work performed under low-temperature conditions.