Ecotourists' visitation rates and coastal ecosystem restoration: evidence from Tanzania

Abstract

Ecotourism is increasingly promoted as a conservation financing mechanism in developing coastal regions, yet empirical evidence linking visitor activity to ecosystem outcomes remains limited. This study examined the relationship between ecotourism visitation and land cover change across three Tanzanian coastal sites over 11 years (2012-2022). Using a cross-sectional mixed methods design, we analyzed ecotourism records from 353,492 visitors, assessed landcover changes through supervised classification of multitemporal satellite imagery, and conducted semi-structured interviews with 15 key informants. Strong positive correlations emerged between visitor numbers and restoration investment at Pugu Kazimzumbwi Nature Forest Reserve ( r = 0.992), Kaole Ruins ( r = 0.971), and Mbudya Island Marine Reserve ( r = 0.858). However, land cover analysis revealed contrasting outcomes: Pugu Kazimzumbwi experienced a 10% decline in vegetation and a 9% increase in built-up area despite 45% visitor growth; Kaole Ruins showed farmland conversion, while Mbudya Island gained 10% vegetation through mangrove recovery. Therefore, the findings suggest that, higher levels of ecotourism visitations are positively associated with ecosystems restoration efforts through increased conservation financing and management activities. However, the observed relationships are correlational and should not be interpreted as evidence of direct causality. However, unmanaged tourism also contributes to localized ecosystem degradation. It is essential to strengthen site-specific management strategies, enforce carrying capacity limits, and reinvest tourism revenues into restoration efforts to maximize the ecological benefits of ecotourism in coastal Tanzania.