CARBON EMISSIONS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, AND DECOUPLING PROSPECTS IN BRICS ECONOMICS

Abstract

Rapid economic expansion in emerging economies has intensified concerns over whether growth can be sustained without escalating environmental costs. This study asks whether economic growth in BRICS economies can be reconciled with climate objectives and whether meaningful carbon–growth decoupling has emerged over time. Using an unbalanced panel dataset for five BRICS countries over the period 2000–2023, sourced from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators, the analysis applies fixed-effects estimators with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors and country-clustered robustness checks. Two complementary models are estimated: one examining the growth–emissions relationship and another analysing the determinants of carbon–growth decoupling using a Tapio-based decoupling elasticity indicator. The findings show that carbon emissions in BRICS economies are primarily driven by energy use rather than income growth itself, highlighting the dominance of energy scale effects under fossil fuel–intensive systems. Renewable energy consumption and financial development contribute to emissions mitigation, but their effects remain insufficient to offset rising energy demand at the aggregate level. The decoupling analysis reveals limited and uneven progress towards decarbonising growth, with financial development, industrial structure, and trade integration exerting heterogeneous effects across countries. Country-specific results underscore pronounced differences in emissions dynamics and decoupling prospects, indicating that no uniform BRICS-wide decoupling pathway exists. The study contributes to the literature by jointly modelling the growth–emissions nexus and decoupling dynamics within a unified panel framework, while explicitly accounting for crosscountry heterogeneity. The results carry important implications for Sustainable Development Goals 8, 9, 12, and 13, emphasising the need for energy-system decarbonisation, targeted industrial upgrading, and nationally tailored policy strategies to align economic growth with climate goals.