Groundwater intelligence for Uganda's cattle corridor: integrating monitoring science, open digital technology and drought policy for sustainable dryland water security

Abstract

Uganda's cattle corridor, a belt of semi-arid rangeland running from the south-west to Karamoja, depends on groundwater for people and livestock, yet the evidence needed to manage it is scattered across monitoring files, borehole records and drilling logs. We present an open, integrated digital twin framework leveraging thousands of national borehole records and decades of monitoring records that turns these records into groundwater intelligence and links it to drought and abstraction policy. By interpolating the water levels, depth to bedrock, and yields of 7,306 located boreholes in 2D and 3D and modelling daily levels with transfer-function noise models driven by rainfall and ERA5-Land evaporation, we show that corridor boreholes have deeper water levels than the rest of the country (median 16 m against 10 m). Of 18 corridor stations, 15 show significant trends, 12 of them rising after the wet years of 2019-2024 but declines at Rwonyo in the south-west and at abstraction wells in Mubende show where use, not climate, now controls levels. Station-specific Standardised Groundwater Index thresholds offer operational drought triggers. We set out how these indicators can feed drought bulletins, anticipatory action, and abstraction permits. The open digital twin approach is transferable to other hard-rock drylands. Code, notebooks, derived tables and figures: github.com/Kaitale/uganda-cattle-corridor-groundwater. Raw monitoring, borehole and drilling-log data belong to the Ministry of Water and Environment, Uganda, and are available on request.