Learning Calibrated Confidence for Multi-Agent Collaboration

Abstract

Complex information seeking on the Web often requires collecting evidence from multiple documents and reasoning across them, as in multi-hop question answering. Multi-agent systems address such tasks by dividing work among specialized agents, where upstream agents produce intermediate answers and supporting evidence that downstream agents build upon. However, upstream answers vary in correctness, and most systems provide no quantitative signal about it, leaving the downstream agent to judge whether to trust or verify what it receives based solely on the textual evidence. In this paper, we propose MASCAL. Each agent learns to produce a correctness probability for its answer by jointly optimizing task performance and confidence calibration in reinforcement learning; the upstream agent passes this probability at handoff, giving the downstream agent a quantitative basis for its decisions, and the final answer also carries a calibrated probability, quantifying the reliability of the system output. To guide the downstream agent in using this signal during training, we introduce confidence-aware weighting, which increases the learning weight at positions responsive to the upstream probability, so that the agent learns more from decisions where it actively uses the signal. Across three collaboration architectures spanning Web retrieval and reasoning tasks, MASCAL improves task accuracy and calibration quality for both agents, and generalizes to deeper collaboration chains and different model scales. Intervention analysis confirms that upstream confidence affects downstream decision behavior, and the learned final confidence supports selective answering and targeted rechecking.