Assessment of urban environmental quality and spatial dynamics using integrated LULC and population data: Evidence from Eskişehir, Türkiye

Abstract

This study integrates land-use/land-cover (LULC) and high-resolution population density data for 2018 and 2024 to analyze the spatiotemporal variations in urban environmental quality in the city center of Eskişehir. Land-use scores were integrated with normalized population density to develop a composite Environmental Index (EI). The EI results indicate a decline in environmental quality, with the mean value decreasing from 0.139 to −0.014. Spatial autocorrelation analysis (Moran’s I = 0.052) revealed weak but statistically significant spatial dependence, while Getis-Ord Gi* analysis identified localized hot spot and cold spot patterns of environmental change. At the district level, Odunpazarı exhibited more pronounced environmental degradation, whereas environmental quality remained relatively higher in Tepebaşı. Overall, the findings indicate that environmental change is spatially heterogeneous and characterized by localized clustering rather than strong global spatial dependence. Furthermore, the results highlight the importance of integrated land-use policies that account for spatial differences in human pressure and environmental sensitivities to support sustainable urban development.