Climate change and conflict: The vicious cycles undermining climate action, and what can be done to break them
Abstract
In this review, we synthesize evidence to argue that climate change and conflict are mutually reinforcing. We first examine conflict as a barrier to mitigation, focusing on four faultlines that slow climate action: (a) ideological polarization, (b) “elite versus ordinary people” narratives, (c) intranational, place‐based conflicts, and (d) international disputes. The consequence of these conflicts is worsening climate change, which in turn increases the prevalence of factors known to be conflict amplifiers: heat stress, economic stress, widening inequality, and forced displacement. Our analysis points to the potential for recursive “climate–conflict loops”, fuelled in part by erosion of institutional trust, shrinking moral circles, political polarization, and de‐prioritization of long‐term climate goals. In a spirit of optimism, however, we identify three buffers capable of breaking these vicious cycles: maintenance of procedural and distributive justice, enhancing information integrity, and scaffolding institutional cooperation. We conclude by proposing a research agenda that integrates psychological mechanisms into dynamic, multi‐level accounts of how climate impacts and political conflict coevolve.