Technology Focus: Hydraulic Fracturing Modeling (November 2026)

Abstract

Fracture modeling continues to be used to evaluate and design novel applications, and integration with diagnostics and other forms of field-data collection are crucial to success. In 2026, what is the state of hydraulic fracture modeling, and where are we headed? Fracture modeling is a core part of the engineering design workflow across much of the industry, both for conventionals and unconventionals. In unconventionals, fracture optimization with infill-well drilling remains a key focus. Fracture modeling continues to be used to evaluate and design novel applications. There is growing activity toward integrating fracture modeling with practical operational constraints. Real-time fracture optimization still has not taken off fully but remains an area of activity. Integration with diagnostics and other forms of field-data collection are crucial to success. In shale, the future is expected to be increasingly driven by new plays outside North America and enhanced oil recovery. Fracture modeling will be integral for both. When developing new plays, designs are less mature, and fracture modeling helps integrate data, evaluate alternatives, and shorten the learning curve. With enhanced oil recovery, either from surfactant or miscible injection, there is a merging of fracture modeling and reservoir engineering, because the fracture and reservoir closely affect each other. Enhanced geothermal systems have seen an explosion of interest in recent years, and this is another area where fracture modeling is closely linked with long-term modeling and reservoir engineering. As I review papers, one quibble would be that I wish more authors provided a detailed technical description of their approach. Often, it is unclear which equations were set up and solved, and so it is difficult to evaluate the reported results. Correspondingly, we see relatively fewer papers on the science of how to perform fracture modeling itself. There are notable exceptions, such as the innovative work being done on phase field modeling. It is too early to say how advances in artificial intelligence will affect fracture modeling. I hope we see more papers on this topic in the coming years.