Disaster Evolution and Risk Evaluation of Urban Transport Infrastructure under Extreme Rainfall–Flood Scenarios: A Case Study

Abstract

To investigate the disaster evolution characteristics and associated risks of heavy rainfall and flooding on urban transportation infrastructure, this study takes the extreme rainstorm event in Zhengzhou as a typical case. A multidimensional dynamic risk assessment model is employed to analyze the disaster evolution process and conduct risk evaluation. First, the three-stage evolution process and its characteristics are systematically examined. Then, based on the theory of natural disaster risk elements, a dynamic risk assessment model is constructed. The improved Order of Priority Approach (OPA) is used to determine the weights of multidimensional risk factors, and interval type-1 fuzzy logic is introduced to address the uncertainty of fuzzy indicators. Finally, the overall risk level of the heavy rainfall–flooding disaster chain is calculated and evaluated. The results indicate a high-risk level, which is consistent with the findings of the field investigation report, thereby validating the feasibility of the proposed disaster chain evaluation method combining multiple models. This analysis provides a theoretical basis for future studies on similar urban storm flood risk scenarios.