INTEGRATED FLOOD PREDICTION AND EARLY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM FOR SOCIO-ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY: A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

Abstract

Flooding causes substantial loss of life, infrastructure damage, livelihood disruption, and socio-economic impacts, highlighting the need for timely and localized early-warning systems. This study proposes the Integrated Flood Alert System (IFAS), a conceptual framework integrating environmental sensing, historical flood information, location-specific thresholds, risk assessment, and coordinated warning communication. IFAS addresses three flood pathways: direct rainfall, floodwater propagation from adjacent or upstream areas, and drainage overflow. The framework was examined using the 2018 Kerala floods and 2024 Dubai flood event as contextual case studies, alongside a community survey of 160 respondents assessing flood-risk perceptions and acceptance of integrated warning technologies. 87.5% of respondents expressed concern about flood risk, and 98.1% considered an integrated flood-alert system beneficial for preparedness and loss reduction. IFAS provides a scalable framework for integrating multi-pathway monitoring with localized risk assessment and coordinated warning dissemination. However, its predictive accuracy and operational effectiveness remain unvalidated. Field-based evaluation, sensor and threshold calibration, warning-lead-time assessment, and comparative performance testing are required before operational deployment.