Analysis of the global, regional, and national burden of kidney cancer and projections until 2036

Abstract

Kidney cancer is a growing public health concern. Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data, this study quantified its global burden from 1990 to 2021 and projected trends to guide prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. The analysis of kidney cancer from 1990 to 2021 used GBD open data as a secondary dataset to examine global incidence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates. Spearman correlation analysis was used to assess the relationship between age-standardized rates and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) globally and across 21 specific regions. A decomposition analysis was performed using data on aging, population dynamics, and epidemiological trends to identify factors contributing to changes in kidney-cancer DALYs and deaths from 1990 to 2021. Future projections for incidence, mortality, and DALYs were generated using the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model. The findings indicate a notable 16% increase in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) for kidney cancer. Conversely, the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) decreased by approximately 4%. Additionally, there was an overall reduction of 11% in the age-standardized years of life lost (ASYR). Significant disparities in kidney cancer burden by sex and geographic location were identified. Increased body mass index and smoking were identified as the main contributors to kidney cancer. Population growth was found to play a role in the escalation of disease burden. The burden of kidney cancer is expected to diminish by 2036. The ASIR of renal cancer increases while the ASDR and ASYR decrease. Promising indications suggest a future decrease in the burden associated with kidney cancer.