Projections for lung cancer mortality in Brazil by 2045: a regional analysis

Abstract

Abstract: The objective was to estimate temporal trends for lung cancer mortality in Brazil and its regions, stratified by sex and age group, from 2021 to 2045. This mortality projection study was based on lung cancer deaths (ICD-10: C33-C34) registered in the Brazilian Mortality Information System between 2001 and 2020, with redistribution of ill-defined causes. Crude and age-adjusted rates were calculated according to the 1960 world standard population. The projections adopted the Nordpred model in the R program, in 5-year periods from 2021 to 2045. There was a projected increase in the absolute number of deaths in both sexes, especially in the South and Southeast regions. The age-adjusted rates indicate a downward trend among men in all regions, despite remaining higher in the South. Among women, there was growth by 2025, followed by stability or a slight reduction by 2045, with the highest rates in the South Region. Population aging contributes to the increase in crude rates, even with the decline in adjusted rates. The projections suggest persistent regional inequalities, which may be associated with historical smoking patterns and unequal access to lung cancer diagnosis and treatment. The findings reinforce the need for regional prevention and control policies, including addressing smoking and considering the new forms of nicotine consumption, such as electronic cigarettes.