Reliability-Based Slope Stability Analysis Using Particle Swarm-Optimized Neural Network: Benchmarking Against Conventional Probabilistic Methods Using a Lebanese Case Study

Abstract

Probabilistic slope stability analysis requires tools that are both computationally efficient and accurate for uncertainty propagation. This study develops a reliability-oriented surrogate framework coupling a multilayer perceptron artificial neural network with particle swarm optimization (ANN–MLP–PSO). The model was trained on 2014 homogeneous slope cases drawn from literature records and mechanics-based simulations. PSO identified a best-performing six-hidden-layer architecture achieving a coefficient of determination of R2 = 0.95 on the held-out test set. The trained surrogate was embedded in a probabilistic sampling framework to estimate the probability of failure (Pf), reliability index (β), and factor-of-safety quantiles, then applied to the Mansourieh slope near Beirut, Lebanon, under dry and wet conditions. Outputs were benchmarked against the First-Order Second-Moment method (FOSM), the Point Estimate Method (PEM), and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The comparison showed that the ANN–MLP–PSO surrogate reproduced the dry-to-wet changes in factor-of-safety distributions, probability of failure, and reliability index obtained from the conventional reliability methods under the same probabilistic assumptions, with wet-scenario failure probabilities ranging from approximately 86% to 99%. Despite quantitative differences, all four methods identified the same reliability trend and engineering interpretation. Once trained, the surrogate enabled rapid probabilistic evaluation without repeated deterministic calculations, providing an efficient tool for slope stability screening and uncertainty-aware geotechnical decision support.