Toward climate-resilient coastal watersheds in the eastern Mediterranean: a GIS-based AHP approach for soil erosion susceptibility mapping: a case study of the Ghamqa River Basin

Abstract

Despite increasing climate variability and anthropogenic pressures in the eastern Mediterranean, integrated approaches for assessing soil erosion susceptibility remain limited. This study evaluates soil erosion susceptibility in the Ghamqa River Basin, western Syria, a climate-sensitive coastal watershed. Ten conditioning factors were selected based on regional characteristics, literature review, field observations, and expert knowledge. Thematic raster layers were standardized, weighted through expert pairwise comparisons, and integrated to delineate erosion susceptibility zones. Model performance was evaluated using Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC–ROC). The results identified slope as the dominant conditioning factor (weight = 0.218), followed by soil texture (0.195), rainfall (0.155), and land use/land cover (0.122). Approximately 35% of the basin was classified as high to very high susceptibility, while nearly 50% fell within moderate to high susceptibility classes. The AHP-based model achieved an AUC of 0.867, indicating very good performance. These findings highlight the combined influence of topographic, climatic, soil, and land-use factors on erosion processes and identify priority areas for soil conservation. By supporting measures such as slope stabilization, vegetation restoration, and sustainable land-use planning, the proposed GIS-based AHP framework contributes to climate-resilient watershed management and strengthens decision-making for reducing land degradation in Mediterranean coastal environments.