Integrated GIS-based multi-criteria and geospatial approach for seismic hazard mapping in the arabian–eurasian convergence zone

Abstract

Earthquakes represent one of the most destructive natural hazards, particularly in developing regions along the convergence zone of the Arabian and Eurasian tectonic plates, where they result in severe human casualties, extensive infrastructure damage, and major economic losses. This study applies an integrated methodology that combines geospatial data with a Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to produce the first regional-scale, screening-level Seismic Hazard Zonation (SHZ) map for the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI), situated at this tectonic boundary. Eight governing factors, including distance to active faults, tectonic lineaments, lithological characteristics, soil properties, earthquake magnitude, seismic frequency, and focal depth, were analyzed and weighted according to their relative influence on seismic hazard potential. Validation using the Frequency Ratio (FR) approach demonstrated FR values below 1 in low-susceptibility areas, approximately 1 in moderate-hazard zones, above 1 in the high hazard class (FR = 1.66), and markedly elevated in the very high hazard class (FR = 9.27), indicating a positive spatial association between the modeled hazard distribution and recorded seismic events; the latter value is partly inflated by the small areal extent of the very high class and the spatial clustering of events within it. The analysis categorized KRI into five hazard levels: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Approximately 2,284 km2 (4.9%) of the region falls within the very high hazard class, highlighting the urgent need for site-specific mitigation measures and disaster preparedness strategies. Overall, this screening-level relative zonation provides a first-order spatial prioritization of seismic hazard in the KRI, supporting regional planning and guiding policymakers toward areas where detailed site-specific investigations, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, and geotechnical characterization should be prioritized.