CoGSeq-LTV: Scalable Missing-Aware Graph-Sequence Modeling for Multi-Business Transaction Analytics
TL;DR
To handle zero-inflated and long-tailed cumulative targets, CoGSeq-LTV adopts a zero-inflated mixture log-normal head with MAE-aligned point supervision and validation-calibrated zero-aware inference, and improves over representative LTV baselines across businesses and horizons, including under a later out-of-time evaluation window.
Abstract
Large-scale super-apps generate heterogeneous transaction logs in which users interact with multiple businesses, item identifiers are only partially available, and future value targets are sparse, heavy-tailed, and cumulative over time. We study multi-business, multi-horizon value prediction as a data-intensive analytics problem over such logs, rather than as a single-table task. (i) a batch-induced user-item graph that provides collaborative signals without materializing a global graph and remains applicable when item identifiers are missing through reserved unknown-item handling, (ii) business-aware sequence encoders that preserve recency, inter-event gaps, payment context, and goods-table availability, and (iii) cross-view contrastive alignment that transfers user-level intent across businesses while retaining business-specific temporal patterns. To handle zero-inflated and long-tailed cumulative targets, CoGSeq-LTV adopts a zero-inflated mixture log-normal head with MAE-aligned point supervision and validation-calibrated zero-aware inference. Experiments on the BiBiSheng transaction-log dataset show that CoGSeq-LTV improves over representative LTV baselines across businesses and horizons, including under a later out-of-time evaluation window.