Analysis of Monkeypox Virus Transmission Dynamics Based on a Compartmental Model: A Case Study of Shenzhen City

Abstract

Since mid-2023, Shenzhen has experienced continuous local transmission of monkeypox, primarily among men who have sex with men (MSM). Understanding how the virus spreads within this high-risk group is essential for designing targeted public health interventions. This study develops a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) compartmental model to analyze monkeypox transmission dynamics in Shenzhen. Key epidemiological parameters, including the basic reproduction number (R₀), transmission rate, and recovery rate, are derived from real-world data from Shenzhen's 2023 outbreak, as reported in published epidemiological investigations and genomic surveillance studies. The model incorporates the unique characteristics of monkeypox, such as an incubation period of approximately 7-14 days and sexual contact as the primary transmission route within the MSM population. Numerical simulations conducted using MATLAB examine three intervention scenarios: no intervention, moderate public health response, and strong intervention. The findings indicate that without effective control measures, the basic reproduction number exceeds the critical threshold, leading to sustained transmission. However, early caseidentification combined with targeted public awareness campaigns can reduce R₀ below unity, effectively containing the outbreak. These results provide evidence-based guidance for monkeypox prevention and control strategies in Shenzhen and other metropolitan areas facing similar risks.