The Central Bank of the Russian Federation's tight monetary policy rates pose a threat to economic security

Abstract

This article analyzes the fundamental contradiction inherent in the implementation of the Bank of Russia's monetary policy in 2024–2026, namely the conflict between the goal of achieving price stability and the need to maintain the economic security of the real sector. Based on data from the Bank of Russia, the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, rating agencies, and official statistics, the key transmission channels of the high key rate shock are examined. An analysis of current macroeconomic dynamics reveals a complex set of interconnected problems, including the growing debt burden of economic entities, the distortion of the corporate borrowing structure, a decline in investment activity, the spread of mass loan restructuring, and the tendency to delegate interest rate risks to borrowers through the use of floating rate instruments. It was found that the implementation of a tight monetary policy, which reduced the annual inflation rate to the target range of 5.7–5.8 % by the end of 2025, simultaneously triggered a slowdown in GDP growth to 1 %, an increase in the volume of problematic corporate loan restructurings, and an increase in total accounts receivable. The key risk factor is the high share of floating-rate loans in the corporate lending structure, which has reached 65 %. This effectively means a complete transfer of interest rate risk to enterprises in the real sector, reducing their financial stability and investment potential. Based on the data obtained, the need to revise the balance between monetary regulation instruments and expand the arsenal of measures to support economic security, including strengthening coordination between the Bank of Russia and the government in countering non-monetary factors of inflation.