Prevalence, incidence, and mortality of congenital heart disease among children in the Arabian Gulf Region (1990-2023)

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to assess trends in the prevalence, incidence, and mortality of congenital heart disease (CHD) among children in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries from 1990 to 2023 and to project future trends to 2050. Methods: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2023 study for Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Age-standardized prevalence, incidence, and mortality rates were estimated for 1990â€"2023, and trends were assessed using the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Analyses were conducted by sex and age group. Future age-standardized rates were projected to 2050 using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and exponential smoothing state space (ETS) models. Results: The age-standardized mortality rate in the GCC decreased from 6.01 per 100,000 in 1990 to 2.40 in 2023 (EAPC âˆ'3.22%), while prevalence increased slightly from 260.35 to 271.71 per 100,000 (EAPC 0.14%). Incidence declined from 22.15 to 20.25 per 100,000 (EAPC âˆ'0.23%). Saudi Arabia had the highest mortality (3.85), Kuwait the highest prevalence (293.53), and Oman the highest incidence (22.65) per 100,000. Mortality was highest among neonates and infants. By 2050, ARIMA projected GCC mortality, prevalence, and incidence rates of 1.40, 282.92, and 21.57 per 100,000. Conclusion: CHD mortality and incidence rates in the GCC have declined over three decades, while prevalence has shown a slight increase. Despite improvements, CHD remains an important health burden in the region, highlighting the need for continued prevention, early diagnosis, and access to specialized pediatric cardiac care.