Selective Openness and Supply-Chain Resilience: Japan Under Geoeconomic Fragmentation

Abstract

The article examines how Japan is adapting its international economic model to geoeconomic fragmentation. The research problem is the apparent contradiction between Japan’s continued dependence on global markets and its growing use of economic-security instruments. The study applies a structured descriptive and institutional analysis of trade, value-added linkages, foreign direct investment, technology policy, and energy security using official data and policy documents for 2010-2025, with the latest trade-in-value-added indicators available for 2022. The results show that Japan is not pursuing broad deglobalization. Instead, it is developing a model of selective openness: market access and participation in regional agreements are preserved, while concentrated dependencies in semiconductors, critical minerals, digital infrastructure, and energy are reduced through supplier diversification, domestic capacity support, stockpiling, investment screening, and public-private coordination. Japan’s 2023 exports remained concentrated in transport equipment and machinery; China accounted for about one-fifth of total goods trade in 2024; inward foreign direct investment stock reached a record 53.3 trillion yen in 2024; and energy self-sufficiency remained only 15.3%. The article contributes an integrated mechanism linking geoeconomic shocks, transmission channels, critical vulnerabilities, and adaptive instruments. For Russia, the most transferable elements are dependency mapping, supply-chain transparency, strategic reserves, industrial automation, and coordinated diversification toward Asian markets; alliance-specific instruments require substantial institutional modification.