Identifying SST precursors for forecast skill windows of East Asian winter cold surges

An eastward-propagating coupled mode amplifying the early growth of extreme El Niño events

Extreme El Niño events are among the most consequential climate phenomena, yet their early prediction remains challenging. Here, by analyzing the 1982/1983, 1997/1998, and 2015/2016 events together with a large ensemble of climate model simulations, we identify an unusually early and reproducible ocean-atmosphere precu...

Ensemble Sensitivity Study of Two Warm-Sector Heavy Rainfall Events Associated with Low-Level Jets in North China

Based on ECMWF ensemble forecast, this study examines two warm-sector heavy rainfall (WSHR) events in North China (3 July and 18 August 2022), which were characterized by distinct synoptic patterns, pre-trough type and edge of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) type, yet both featured low-level jets (LLJs)....

Interpretable AI predicts a 2026 summer dry anomaly in central China

A deep learning model is employed that translates dynamical circulation predictions into precipitation estimates and provides physically interpretable explanations for AI-derived regional climate projections, facilitating evidence-based assessment before observational data become available.

Attribution of subseasonal cold‐spell forecasts to remote drivers using nudging experiments

A set of nudging experiments with the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model is used to attribute subseasonal cold‐spell forecasts over northern Europe to remote drivers. Four cases were selected where forecasts confidently predicted cold anomalies in Week 3: two associated with weakened str...

Subseasonal predictability of the Bay of Bengal summer monsoon onset tied to three-ocean sea surface temperature anomalies

Characteristics of East Asian Summer Weather Regimes and Their Predictability in GloSea6 Hindcasts

Weather regimes (WRs) provide a useful framework for organizing large-scale circulation variability and diagnosing subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability. Yet they remain poorly characterized during the East Asian peak summer. Using daily 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies, we identify five recurrent WRs over East...