An Analysis of the Impact of Geopolitical and Climate Shocks on Global Supply Chains—A Case Study of the Suez Canal Disruption

Abstract

The Suez Canal, a maritime chokepoint facilitating 12-15% of global trade, has been disrupted by both climate extremes and geopolitical conflicts in the early 2020s. This study examines how these two types of shocks affect global supply chain resilience. The research aims to compare their impact pathways, response mechanisms, and adaptation strategies, thereby filling a gap in the existing literature concerning the compound effects of dual risks. Using a single-case study design, this research qualitatively analyzes eight peer-reviewed articles and official reports from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development and the World Bank. Data were processed through thematic coding and comparative analysis. The results indicate that while both shocks significantly weaken supply chain resilience, geopolitical shocks produce more prolonged effects, whereas climate shocks are more sudden and less predictable. In response, firms adopt similar adaptive strategies, including route diversification, inventory buffering, and digital tracking. It is concluded that enhancing supply chain resilience requires a dual-risk analytical framework, practical multi-route planning, and strengthened international coordination for key chokepoints.