Sociotechnical transitions towards decarbonization of Brazilian Agriculture: the potential to scale innovative niche production systems

Abstract

Abstract Brazil’s agricultural frontier and land-use change make decarbonization a central challenge for meeting climate targets while sustaining productivity. This article applies the multilevel perspective (MLP) to compare three innovative niches with low‑carbon potential: crop–livestock–forestry integration (CLFi), cabruca cocoa agroforestry in the Atlantic Forest, and the emerging forest restoration economy within various sociotechnical regime dimensions. The analysis draws on 42 semi‑structured interviews (2019–2024) with producers, civil‑society organizations, agribusiness, researchers and public officials, complemented by secondary quantitative indicators. We find that scaling these niches depends less on the existence of technical solutions than on (i) market and value‑chain coordination capable of rewarding environmental performance and (ii) institutional and knowledge infrastructures (credit, extension, standards and monitoring) that reduce entry costs and risks—especially for small and medium producers. Cross‑case comparison also shows that land governance and territorial inequalities condition both feasibility and benefit sharing. The paper contributes to sustainability transitions scholarship by grounding MLP concepts in Brazilian agrarian contexts and by identifying policy levers for scaling low‑carbon practices in tropical agri‑food systems.