The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Corporate Import-Export Resilience: An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data from 30 Countries

Abstract

{'en': "Amid heightened global economic uncertainty, exchange rate volatility has become a significant macroeconomic factor influencing firms' import and export activities. Using panel data from 30 countries spanning 2005–2023, this study employs a two-way fixed effects model to empirically examine the impact of exchange rate volatility on the resilience of corporate imports and exports. The findings indicate that: (1) exchange rate volatility exerts a significant negative effect on the resilience of corporate imports and exports, a result that remains robust after substituting the core explanatory variable and excluding crisis years; (2) GDP growth rate, trade openness, institutional quality, FDI inflows, and the share of industrial value added all significantly enhance import-export resilience, whereas inflation shows no significant effect; (3) heterogeneity analysis reveals that the negative impact of exchange rate volatility is similar in magnitude for both advanced and developing economies, but the explanatory power of exchange rate volatility is stronger in the model for developing economies. This study provides empirical evidence for understanding how exchange rate risk affects the stability of international trade and offers insights for exchange rate risk management and trade policy formulation."}