CULTURAL BACKLASH DAN PERGESERAN PREFERENSI POLITIK WARGA MUHAMMADIYAH DALAM TRANSISI KEPEMIMPINAN JOKOWI-PRABOWO PADA PEMILIHAN PRESIDEN 2024

Abstract

This research analyzes the influence of materialist–post-materialist value orientation, cultural backlash, and elite perception on the voting preferences of Muhammadiyah's young members in the transition of leadership from Joko Widodo (Jokowi) to Prabowo Subianto in the 2024 Presidential Election. Based on the cultural backlash theory by Ronald Inglehart along with Norris & Inglehart (2019), the research frames the contest as a battle of two value axes: Jokowi as a symbol of post-materialist values (openness, participation) and Prabowo as a symbol of materialist values (stability, authority, order). The research uses a quantitative approach with an explanatory survey design. Data were collected from 63 members of the autonomous Muhammadiyah organization in the Special Region of Yogyakarta through a five-point Likert scale questionnaire and then analyzed using multiple linear regression. The model places value orientation (X1), cultural backlash (X2), and elite perception (X3) as independent variables, and voting preference (Y) as the dependent variable. The results show that the model is significant simultaneously (F = 4.639; p = 0.0006; R2 = 0.191). However, partially, only the materialist–post-materialist value orientation has a significant influence (β = 0,436; p= 0,001), while cultural backlash (β = 0,035; p = 0,807) and elite perception (β = -0,055; p = 0,702) are not significant. These findings confirm that the political preferences of Muhammadiyah's young members are primarily driven by fundamental value orientations, rather than cultural reactions or elite influences. Cultural backlash among this group is diagnostic (awareness of threats) rather than restorative (triggering populist support). The research concludes that framing Jokowi as a post-materialist symbol and Prabowo as a materialist symbol has a clear and strong impact: the majority of post-materialist-oriented young Muhammadiyah members tend to maintain their affinity toward Jokowi's symbol and reject shifting to Prabowo's materialist symbolism.