Impact of great power rivalry on conflict resolution: Russian and American interventions in Syria

Abstract

This research critically evaluates the interrelationship between the competition of major powers within Syria and the transitional regime. This study focuses is on the reasons for the failure of the mediation structures established under the United Nations. It employs a qualitative explanatory single-case study design and process-tracing methodology with the help of neorealism and proxy war theories. Its purpose is to examine the process of transforming a regional political conflict into a prolonged international proxy war of conflicting strategic interests of superpowers. It is argued that the effective resolution of the Syrian conflict and the process of political transition have been adversely affected by the Russian-American geopolitical competition. The conflicting strategic interests of the United States and Russia, continuous diplomatic vetoes, and parallel diplomatic initiatives have paralyzed the institutional role of the UN Security Council. This failure creates significant obstacles to resolving the Syrian conflict through an agreed international process. This paper also investigates the structural motivations behind the gradual weakening of the governance structure of the Assad regime to its collapse. It shows that the Bashar al-Assad regime's external aid lifelines have been disrupted as Damascus's main external patrons become engaged in other geopolitical theatres. It also examines the transformation of the proxy war policy by the United States and Russia into pragmatic diplomacy after the establishment of a new controversial transitional government. This study has shown that major power strategic confrontations, proxy alignments and geopolitical balances are having profound effect on state transitions in the current multipolar era.