Research on the Impact of Digital Trade Level on High Manufacturing Industry in Guangdong Province

Abstract

This study uses panel data from 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province (2014–2023) to construct a comprehensive digital trade development index, considering four dimensions: digital infrastructure, technological capability, trade potential, and trade capacity. The high-quality development of the manufacturing industry is assessed across five dimensions: innovation, structural optimization, green and low-carbon initiatives, economic performance, and openness to external markets. The impact of digital trade on manufacturing quality is empirically evaluated using a two-way fixed effects model. Benchmark regression results show that a one-unit increase in Guangdong's digital trade level is associated with a 0.739-unit increase in the manufacturing industry's high-quality development index. Heterogeneity analysis identifies a pronounced development gap between the Pearl River Delta and the eastern, western, and northern regions of Guangdong, highlighting uneven regional benefits from digital trade. Finally, the study recommends targeted strategies to advance the digital transformation of manufacturing and support coordinated regional development, emphasizing: 1) provincial-level institutional development; 2) high-end industrial leadership in the Pearl River Delta; and 3) infrastructure improvements in the eastern, western, and northern regions of Guangdong.