This study examines the transmission of global geopolitical risk (GPR), Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), and crude oil price shocks to domestic inflation in Ghana using a six-variable structural vector autoregressive model with recursive Cholesky identification, incorporating the monetary policy rate and cov...
The question of how oil supply news shocks transmit to real activity, financial conditions and regional labor markets is back at the center of the macroeconomic research agenda. To answer this question, we introduce the Factor Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (FABART) model, a nonlinear factor-augmented vector autoreg...
Relying on a micro-level dataset of US firms' inflation expectations, we document that firms in industries with larger Domar weights and more flexible prices have more accurate inflation forecasts. To explain these patterns, we develop a rational inattention model of price-setting firms within a production network. In...
Using a unique firm-level survey from the Bureau of Economic Research in South Africa covering a panel of 1,444 South African firms surveyed at quarterly frequency between 2000 and 2023, we examine how global oil news shocks shape firms’ inflation and wage expectations. We identify exogenous oil supply news shocks foll...
This study examines the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty and market-specific shocks on the dynamics of returns and volatility in feeder cattle, live cattle, and lean hog futures markets. Additionally, the study explores whether volatility transmission varies within and across livestock production systems. We employ...
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