AI-Based Optimization for Biofuel Production: Strategies for Utilizing Degraded Land for Climate Change Mitigation, Green Finance Mobilization, and Achieving United Nations Sustainable Development Goals

Abstract

Global land degradation affects approximately 2 billion hectares, threatening food security, biodiversity, and climate stability while undermining the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The concurrent urgency to decarbonize the energy system and mobilize green finance for sustainable transitions has created a rare policy window in which AI-optimized biofuel production on degraded lands can simultaneously serve multiple imperatives. This study presents a comprehensive secondary data analysis of AI-based optimization frameworks for deploying biofuel production systems on degraded lands, integrating an explicit green finance dimension that has been largely absent from prior synthesis literature. Drawing on 152 peer-reviewed studies and authoritative datasets from FAO, IEA, IRENA, UNCCD, the Green Climate Fund (GCF), and the World Bank, we analyze machine learning, deep learning, reinforcement learning, and hybrid AI architectures applied to feedstock selection, soil remediation, yield prediction, supply-chain logistics, and green finance risk-return optimization. Based on evidence synthesized from 152 studies and supporting geospatial and scenario analyses, results indicate that AI-optimized systems can recover 75–94% of prime-land yields, achieve carbon sequestration rates of 2.1–6.8 t CO2e ha−1 yr−1, central estimate ≈ 7–9 Gt CO2e yr−1 at 35% adoption with moderate exclusions, and generate projected internal rates of return ranging from 8–22%, depending on feedstock type, regional conditions, and financing assumptions. Yield-recovery and carbon-sequestration ranges are drawn from synthesis of the reviewed literature; IRR, financial-leverage, and market-expansion figures are author-constructed scenario projections based on this evidence, not independently observed outcomes. Green bonds, Article 6 carbon credits, GCF concessional finance, and blended finance structures are identified as the most impactful instruments, collectively projected, under scenario-based modeling, to reduce composite project risk scores by 30–45% and expand the investable universe of degraded-land biofuel projects by an estimated 340% relative to a no-AI, no-green-finance baseline; these figures represent author-constructed scenario estimates rather than direct empirical findings. We develop the AI-Biofuel-Land Restoration-Green Finance (ABLR-GF) conceptual framework (not yet empirically validated through field pilots or simulation) with explicit green finance routing pathways and identify critical policy enablers for global deployment. This study advances the evidence base for policy-makers, investors, researchers, and development practitioners working at the intersection of artificial intelligence, bioenergy, green finance, and sustainable land management.