The Impact Mechanism of New Quality Productive Forces in Agriculture on Agricultural Carbon Emissions

Abstract

Agricultural carbon emissions are a key issue in global climate governance. New quality productive forces in agriculture, an advanced productivity form driven by scientific and technological innovation, significantly directly inhibit agricultural carbon emissions by promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of agricultural production methods. Employing panel data spanning from 2010 to 2023 across 31 provincial - level administrative units in China (including autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government), this research paper systematically assesses the influence, transmission processes, and spatial attributes of the new - quality productive forces in the agricultural sector on agricultural carbon emissions. It achieves this by utilizing two - way fixed - effects models, mediation - effects models, and spatial Durbin models. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The emergence of novel, high - quality productive forces in the agricultural sector exerts a substantial direct suppressive impact on agricultural carbon emissions. This effect remains stable even after addressing endogeneity issues and conducting multiple robustness verifications. (2) The enhancement of agricultural total factor productivity and the optimization of agricultural industrial agglomeration are two parallel mediating transmission pathways; (3) The carbon reduction effect of new quality productive forces in agriculture has significant regional heterogeneity, with a stronger inhibitory effect in northern China than in southern China; (4) It has a significant spatial spillover effect, which can not only suppress local carbon emissions, but also play a radiating driving role in adjacent regions. This paper provides systematic theoretical framework and empirical evidence for understanding the carbon reduction effect of new quality productive forces in agriculture.