Assessment of Involvement of Countries of Greater Eurasian Partnership into Foreign Trade Interaction

Abstract

Transformation of global economic relations presupposes reconsideration of approaches to assessment of foreign economic interaction of countries towards more flexible and soft formats, as, for example, partnership, including the Greater Eurasian partnership (GEP) initiated 2015 by the Russian President V. V. Putin. The goal of study is to conduct complex analysis of involvement of GEP countries into international trade and investment processes with use of econometric instruments in order to strengthen the interaction within GEP. The study is based on panel and paired data on 18 GEP countries for 2000–2024, presented in databases of international organizations (UNCTAD, World Bank, IMF, WTO, WIPO, UN Comtrade). The tools of a multilevel econometric model, including a gravity trading model, were used as the methodological basis of the study. An expanded gravity model of trade has been applied, taking into account economic size, distance, and institutional factors, and a multilevel econometric model analyzing the impact of trade, FDI, and technological readiness on the balance of payments for the period 2000–2024. The authors conclude that GEP has an integration potential, but it has a number of logistical and institutional barriers. Econometric calculations have confirmed that export concentration and import diversification are associated with increased integration, while logistical difficulties and limited trade agreements are associated with a slowdown. The development of GEP is facilitated by the activation of regional agreements.