You Cannot Photograph the Same Street Twice: Reliability Limits in Vision-Language Measurement of Urban Change

Abstract

Vision-language models (VLMs) are increasingly used to measure urban change from repeated street-level imagery, and the results are often mapped for individual sample points. Such maps assume that a perception score changes only if the street does. We test this assumption with repeated Google Street View captures of unchanged streets in five US cities and with controlled experiments that hold the photograph, scene or camera fixed. Re-photographing an unchanged street shifts its perception score by two-thirds of the average difference between two streets in the same city. Much of this shift arises in the scoring and averages out over question orders; the rest comes from the photographs and is not predicted by image statistics of weather and light. A single image measures a place moderately well, but the change at one location barely separates redeveloped from unchanged streets. All models tested score degraded images as worse-looking streets, and in crowdsourced imagery camera differences cause false reports of physical change unless both images are rendered through a common virtual camera. After aggregation, redeveloped streets are scored as wealthier and better maintained, with more enclosure and less greenery. Streets photographed in the same capture campaign share part of their error, which averaging within a district does not remove. For urban research and planning, VLM perception scores can support comparisons between groups of streets, such as redeveloped and unchanged streets photographed in the same campaigns, but not the identification of individual streets that improved or declined.