Migration-Driven Urban Growth and Land Use Dynamics in Jos Metropolis, Nigeria: A Geospatial Analysis of Environmental and Socio-Economic Consequences (2015–2024)

Abstract

This study examined the environmental and socio-economic consequences of migration-driven urban growth in Jos Metropolis, Plateau State, Nigeria, between 2015 and 2024. Using a mixed-methods approach integrating remote sensing (Sentinel-2 imagery), GIS analysis, and household surveys (n=193), the research analysed land use and land cover (LULC) changes, urban expansion patterns, and residents' perceptions of environmental and socio-economic impacts. The findings revealed that built-up areas expanded from 32.37 km² (12.54%) in 2015 to 46.02 km² (17.82%) in 2024, representing a 42% increase. Notably, vegetation cover recovered from 18.60% to 26.88% during the same period, suggesting environmental regeneration. The survey data indicated that migration was primarily economic-driven (75%), with 45% of migrants being seasonal. Environmental challenges reported included deforestation (70%), water scarcity (65%), and land competition (80%). Socio-economic benefits included economic prosperity (60%) and increased agricultural production (55%), while challenges included job competition (60%) and environmental pressure (65%). The study recommends strengthened urban planning, environmental management, and migration governance to promote sustainable urban development in Jos.