The Five-Year Horizon: Quantum Computing and the Philosophy of Technical Becoming
TL;DR
This paper argues that this perpetual horizon is not a forecasting failure but the temporal signature of Perpetual Five-Year Technologies (PFYTs): technologies of atoms, not bits, whose technical object and enabling ecosystem must co-develop.
Abstract
Certain physics-based technologies (quantum computing, fusion energy, advanced materials, brain–computer interfaces) have remained “five years away” for decades. This paper argues that this perpetual horizon is not a forecasting failure but the temporal signature of Perpetual Five-Year Technologies (PFYTs): technologies of atoms, not bits, whose technical object and enabling ecosystem must co-develop. Drawing on philosophy of technology and sociology of scientific practice, and grounded in quantitative analysis of cross-platform performance data and high-impact research across hardware architectures, the paper shows that PFYT temporality is endogenous, produced by concretization dynamics and recursive constraint discovery rather than by market failures or insufficient funding. Quantum computing provides the paradigmatic case. Treating the quantum processor as a technical individual in active individuation explains why multiple computing paradigms persist and why each breakthrough resets rather than collapses the horizon. The convergence of machine learning and quantum hardware into pipelines for drug and materials discovery shows how Physical AI reshapes PFYT dynamics, compressing some cycles while introducing new forms of co-individuation between intelligence and matter. The framework generates diagnostics for physics-based frontiers where technical objects and milieus co-produce developmental time.