A system dynamics approach to assessing organisational resilience in digitally disrupted sociotechnical systems
TL;DR
This study examines whether a System Dynamics modelling approach can provide a robust, quantifiable representation of resilience behaviour in the South African National Payment System under continuous cyber disruption and develops and evaluates a multidimensional resilience assessment artefact.
Abstract
Organisational resilience is a critical capability for complex sociotechnical systems facing persistent digital and cyber disruptions. Yet, it remains difficult to measure dynamically, particularly in service-oriented infrastructures such as national payment systems. This study examines whether a System Dynamics (SD) modelling approach can provide a robust, quantifiable representation of resilience behaviour in the South African National Payment System (NPS) under continuous cyber disruption. Using a Design Science Research paradigm, the study develops and evaluates a multidimensional resilience assessment artefact. The research combines a systematic literature review, Delphi-based expert validation, causal loop diagram and stock-and-flow simulation modelling, employing dimensionless normalisation and sensitivity analysis grounded in frontier SD research to quantify “soft” resilience variables. Simulation results show that resilience emerges from interactions among adaptive capacity, recoverability, robustness, and financial resource allocation. Targeted investment in adaptive capacity and recoverability reinforces long-term resilience, while excessive focus on robustness risks systemic rigidity and reduced adaptability. Organisational resilience depends on managerial choices about resource allocation and capability development. Investing in adaptive capacity and recoverability reinforces feedback loops that sustain performance during disruption. The study contributes a feedback-based resilience assessment model and provides a decision-support framework for evaluating resilience strategies in a digitally disrupted environment.