Aug 2026· Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice· Vol 15, pp. 289 - 309· 0 citations· 33 references
Abstract
Abstract This paper investigates the dynamic and nonlinear effects of monetary policy on house prices in China from 2008 to 2025. Utilizing a Bayesian Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVPVAR) model with stochastic volatility, we estimate the evolution of policy transmission in terms of shock magnitude and time-lag. By conducting 20,000 MCMC simulations, the study identifies significant structural shifts in the transmission mechanism. The results show that while the stimulative effect of targeted housing credit expansion was dominant during the 2009 and 2016 cycles, its marginal effectiveness has diminished toward historical lows in the 2023–2025 period. Simultaneously, the inhibitory effect of interest rate hikes has become increasingly shallow, suggesting severe balance sheet constraints and weak expectations in the current housing market rather than a classic “liquidity trap.” The inclusion of stochastic volatility underscores the role of market uncertainty in dampening the efficiency of traditional policy instruments.
Abstract This paper examines the time-varying responses of China’s economic policy uncertainty (EPU) to five structural oil-price shocks, with particular attention to the responses of price- and quantity-based monetary policy instruments. Using quarterly data from 2007Q2 to 2025Q1, we estimate a TVP-VAR-SV model that i...
Meng-Di Zhang, Chin Lee, W. N. W. Azman Saini· Journal of Central Banking T...· 0 citations
This study examines the time-varying effects of monetary policy on Sri Lanka's macroeconomy, focusing on price- and quantity-based instruments and transmission through market interest rate and exchange rate channels.
The analysis employs three time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) models wit...
Ming-Guo Zhao· International Trade, Politic...· 0 citations
The study explores the stochastic impacts of the exchange rate fluctuation and the synergistic effects of monetary-fiscal expansion simulations on export growth in Asia. It attempts to fill the gap between theoretical policy development and the practical uncertainty of policymakers in the emerging Asian markets.
The s...
D. Umoru, Rashidah Elamah, Beauty Igbinovia· BRICS Journal of Economics· 0 citations
This study examines the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in Sri Lanka using monthly data from 2001–2025. Over the past two decades Sri Lanka has experienced several episodes of high uncertainty, including the global financial crisis, the easter Sunday attacks, the...
Morawaggoda Kankanamalage Tharaka Nayana Hansi, D. Kumari, W. Madurapperuma· F1000Research· 0 citations
Persistent high inflation has become one of the central macroeconomic challenges in Türkiye over the past decade, with increasing complexity arising from fluctuations in fuel prices, exchange-rate volatility, and expansive public spending. Although these factors have drawn considerable attention—particularly in the aft...
Mehmet Akif Peçe· Hitit Sosyal Bilimler Dergis...· 0 citations
Background The Iraqi economy—the subject of this study—is a rentier economy highly susceptible to shocks stemming from oil price fluctuations. Consequently, oil revenues in the general budget are significantly affected by these shocks, given that they account for 90% of total public revenue—a fact that has deeply entre...
A. Jabbar, Basim Khamies Obaid Dikheel· F1000Research· 0 citations
We use cookies to run the site and, with your consent, for analytics and to show ads.
See our Cookie Policy.
