A risk map for HPAI in poultry across 174 administrative districts of Kazakhstan is presented, using a multi-criteria decision analysis (TOPSIS) that integrates five quantitative risk indicators that relate to wild bird habitat, virus survival in the environment and poultry farm census to mitigate the impact of one of the most devastating transboundary poultry diseases in Central Asia.
Abstract
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is a transboundary disease of birds with zoonotic potential. Since 2021, H5 HPAI virus variants have spread globally, with migratory waterfowl playing a key role in transcontinental dissemination. Kazakhstan lies at the intersection of major flyways, creating a persistent risk of virus introduction into domestic poultry. While HPAI risk in wild birds has been explored in Kazakhstan, the spatial risk for poultry has remained underassessed. Here, we present a risk map for HPAI in poultry across 174 administrative districts of Kazakhstan, using a multi-criteria decision analysis (TOPSIS) that integrates five quantitative risk indicators that relate to wild bird habitat, virus survival in the environment and poultry farm census. The obtained district-level risk index agreed well with historical outbreak data (2005–2025), with an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.899 (95% CI: 0.846–0.952). Most districts (56%) were at negligible risk, whereas medium- and high-risk clusters occurred in the north, central, and southern regions, and near the Caspian Sea. These findings provide an operational, spatially explicit tool for targeting surveillance and biosecurity measures to high-risk areas, ultimately helping to mitigate the impact of one of the most devastating transboundary poultry diseases in Central Asia.
A data-driven spatio-temporal framework that integrates geospatial, ecological and climatic datasets to explain and forecast the dynamics of H5N1 outbreaks between 2021 and 2024 indicates that H5N1 transmission is structured by ecological drivers and local persistence mechanisms rather than purely seasonal effects.
Mehak Jindal, Samsung Lim, Raina MacIntyre· The International Archives o...· 0 citations
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5 viruses are a major threat to the French poultry sector. All sectors are affected and virus transmission between sectors has been reported. The objective of this work was to identify the risk of virus transmission to the broiler and layer sectors from any other poultry sector in France through nine indirect transmission pathways. We used scenario tree modelling of data collected from the literature or expert knowledge. Three questionnaires were produced, one for each field of expertise: avian influenza, the broiler and layer sectors. The experts' estimates were combined using a beta distribution weighted by their confidence level. Monte Carlo iteration was used to combine the different probabilities of the scenario tree and to assess the risk of transmission. In the broiler sector, the probability of viral transmission was the highest when indoor broiler farms were exposed farms and duck farms were source farms and high when turkey and guinea fowl farms were source farms. In the layer sector, probabilities of transmission were similar between all types of farms as source farms and layer farms as exposed farms. Probabilities were very low between breeder farms but similar in all the sectors. This work highlights the role of some pathways, especially management of manure and dead birds in the probability of introduction into broiler or layer farms. These results can be used to improve management of the risk of HPAI H5 transfer between different poultry sectors in France.
C. Hautefeuille, Facundo Muñoz, Gwenaëlle Dauphin et al.· Preventive Veterinary Medici...· 0 citations
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) remains a recurrent threat to poultry production and One-Health surveillance in India. We developed a national relative spatial risk map for India using curated outbreak records spanning January 2006 to April 2024 (predominantly HPAI H5N1 and H5N8), buffered pseudo-absence sampling, H3 resolution-7 hexagons, and 94 environmental, livestock, land-cover, and anthropogenic predictors. Under 5-fold spatial block cross-validation, eight base classifiers were trained and all performed above chance (AUC > 0.76). The Gaussian-process stacked meta-learner achieved the highest AUC (0.853), but the improvement over the strongest individual base learner, Random Forest (AUC 0.851; Brier 0.155; ECE 0.079), was small and statistically non-significant. Its principal added value was a companion uncertainty layer, the GPR posterior standard deviation, which showed internal consistency with ensemble disagreement across base models (r = 0.74, p < 0.001). Feature attribution ranked human population density, extensive chicken density, June precipitation, and seasonal humidity variables among the predictors most associated with model outputs, with interpretation constrained by passive-surveillance bias and multicollinearity. The resulting relative spatial risk surface, prediction-uncertainty surface, and subdistrict risk-uncertainty classification layers identify eastern, northeastern, coastal, and selected southern regions as priorities for targeted surveillance and prospective validation.
Satish Gaikwad, T. R. Arun, Basavaraj Shrinivasa et al.· Frontiers in Veterinary Scie...· 0 citations
Predicting the risk of HPAI H5N1 poultry outbreaks across Australia at the local government area (LGA) level using a range of influential risk factors provides a spatially explicit framework for targeted surveillance, preparedness, and biosecurity measures aimed at mitigating the impact of future HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in Australian poultry.
Pan Zhang, Samsung Lim, A. Quigley et al.· bioRxiv· 0 citations
Introduction Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) remains a persistent threat to poultry production systems despite reinforced biosecurity measures. This study aimed to characterize biosecurity deficiencies in HPAI-affected farms in Korea and to identify structured patterns of deficiencies. Methods Outbreak investigation reports from 311 HPAI-affected farms (2020/2021–2024/2025 seasons) were analyzed, yielding 3,172 biosecurity deficiency records classified into 16 categories across three operational domains. Frequency analysis, k-means clustering, and association rule analysis were applied to identify deficiency patterns and co-occurrence structures. Results Wildlife control was the most frequent deficiency (85.9%), followed by operational management (65.9%) and deficiencies related to anteroom biosecurity measures in barns (56.3%). Four distinct farm-level deficiency profiles were identified, with significant differences in cluster membership between chicken and duck farms. Association rule analysis revealed consistent co-occurring deficiency pairs, particularly involving farm-entry measures such as visitor and vehicle disinfection. Discussion These findings indicate that biosecurity deficiencies are not isolated but form structured and interconnected patterns. A system-level approach incorporating targeted, pattern-based biosecurity interventions and risk-based surveillance prioritization may improve the sustainability and effectiveness of HPAI prevention and control in poultry production systems.
Hachung Yoon, Kyoungsook Kim, Keesung Hong· Frontiers in Veterinary Scie...· 0 citations
In 2006, millions of poultry mortality was associated with high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) in Nigeria. The disease was brought under control from 2008 to 2014, then a resurgence in 2015. This study therefore aimed at investigating the occurrence, locations and seasonal conditions that facilitated HPAI outbreak and estimate its related economic losses in Plateau State, Nigeria, from 2015 to 2022.vThe HPAI data used were reported cases recorded by the Avian Influenza Desk office, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Plateau State. Number of farms, flock size, type of birds, year of cases reported and laboratory results as well as seasons of spread of the disease were extracted and utilized for this study. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and zero inflated negative binomial for trend analysis. The highest number of HPAI cases was recorded in 2015, with 151 cases, accounting for 52.6 % of the total reported cases while the lowest number of cases was in 2019 with only two cases, representing 0.7% of the total cases. The peak prevalence occurred between February and March of the period of study, with a decline thereafter until December. Jos South LGAs had the highest number of positive results, followed by Jos North, while Mangu, Barkin-Ladi, and Wase LGAs had the lowest. An estimated loss of 130,481,135 eggs from a total mortality of 825,000 poultry birds in 304 farms translates to a cumulative economic loss of ₦ 6,023,401,525.00 ($ 4,068,441.94.00). The distribution of HPAI varied across different LGAs of the State. The study provided valuable insights into the epidemiology and the direct or indirect huge economic losses due to HPAI in Plateau State, Nigeria.
Unknown authors· Proceedings of the Nigerian...· 0 citations
