TiMi: Empower Time Series Transformers with Multimodal Mixture of Experts

SCENARIODIFF: A Scenario-level Guidance Framework for Multimodal Time Series Forecasting--Extended Version

Experiments on the Time-MMD benchmark show that SCENARIODIFF is especially effective in event-driven domains, demonstrating the value of explicit hierarchical scenario guidance for multimodal time series forecasting.

Attention as Selection: Semantic-Guided Time Series Forecasting

REATS: LLM Reasoning-based Ensemble Learning for Adaptive Time Series Forecasting

Due to the diversity of real-world time series, no single forecasting model consistently dominates across all samples. Ensemble learning addresses this by combining complementary model strengths, yet existing methods rely on fixed rules or black-box models based solely on numerical inputs, failing to leverage LLM reasoning for interpretable weighting decisions. We propose REATS, which leverages LLM reasoning capabilities as an intelligent ensemble router that jointly processes textual temporal pattern descriptions and numerical features to produce interpretable, sample-adaptive ensemble weights through chain-of-thought reasoning. To enable effective LLM-based ensembling, we study its key design choices and propose: (i) a structured input pipeline that transforms raw time series into hybrid textual--numerical representations with fixed token cost, enabling rule-based chain-of-thought construction without API dependency, augmented with retrieved similar-sample priors; (ii) a diverse multi-row weight supervision scheme coupled with a token-efficient percentage-table format that reduces numerical complexity and mitigates LLM hallucinations; and (iii) a two-stage fine-tuning framework combining SFT with GRPO, where a reciprocal reward mapping transforms the continuous unbounded MSE gap into bounded signals with amplified near-oracle sensitivity, addressing the uniform sensitivity and outlier-dominated advantage compression inherent in naive reward designs for regression-based GRPO. Experiments on eight benchmarks demonstrate that REATS outperforms competitive ensemble baselines while providing natural language explanations and demonstrating strong transfer learning and out-of-domain generalization to unseen candidate models.

HyBDM: Multi-Scale Hybrid Experts for Time Series Forecasting with Bidirectional Dependency Modeling

Time series forecasting (TSF) is vital to many applications, yet existing models often struggle to capture the heterogeneous long-range global patterns and short-range local variations in multivariate time series. While some approaches partially model these dependencies, they often do not jointly exploit temporal and feature-wise information. To address this challenge, we propose HyBDM, a multi-scale hybrid model that decomposes temporal dynamics into global patterns and local variations, which are modeled by two specialized experts. The Global Patterns Expert employs an enhanced BiConv-Mamba module that integrates bidirectional convolutions, an M-SSM layer, a forgetting mechanism, and a GDD-MLP module for cross-channel modeling. The Local Variations Expert uses a Local Window Transformer (LWT) to perform efficient locality-aware attention with reduced computational complexity. In addition, a Multi-Scale Patcher and a Long-Short Router enable multi-resolution representations and adaptive fusion of the two experts. Experiments on six benchmark datasets show that HyBDM outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency, demonstrating its effectiveness in bridging global-local dependencies for multivariate TSF.

Semantics or Structure? Auditing Text Sensitivity in Multimodal Time-Series Forecasting

Multimodal time-series forecasting has emerged as a promising paradigm in which natural-language context is expected to improve predictive performance. Recent multimodal foundation models, including Aurora, as well as early- and late-fusion approaches such as MM-TSFlib and TaTS, report substantial gains over unimodal baselines on the Time-MMD benchmark, attributing these improvements to textual information. However, whether these models are actually sensitive to the semantic content of the text remains unverified. We address this question through controlled text perturbations, attribution analyses, and probes of Aurora's text pathway. On Time-MMD, swapping each row's text for any other real text (empty, constant, within-domain shuffled, or cross-domain) moves mean MSE by less than $0.5\%$ on all three architectures. The improvement reported in the literature is recovered when a co-shipped numeric column is removed without touching text. We conclude that, on this benchmark and within this family of frozen-encoder architectures, text content is not the operative signal behind the reported gains. To support future work on text integration in multimodal foundation models for structured data, we release our perturbation protocol and evaluation harness as a reusable diagnostic toolkit.

VLT: A Vision-Language-Time Series Multimodal Foundation Model for Industrial Intelligence

Industrial time series serve as the foundation for Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) to ensure the reliability and safety of industrial equipment such as aero-engines. However, existing approaches are typically limited to single-modality modeling, which restricts their generalization in complex scenarios. Although recent advances in large language models (LLMs) provide new opportunities for multimodal learning, bridging continuous time-series signals and discrete textual semantics remains an open challenge. To this end, we propose VLT, a multimodal foundation model that jointly models time-series, frequency-spectrum visual representations, and textual knowledge. A key insight is to utilize the frequency spectrum as a visual bridge to connect continuous temporal signals with discrete semantics. Specifically, a Time-aware Mixture-of-Experts (Time-MoE) is designed to capture heterogeneous temporal dynamics, while a Frequency-Text Augmented Learner enables joint modeling of spectral and semantic features within a shared representation space. Furthermore, a time-centric gradient alignment mechanism is introduced to mitigate cross-modal optimization conflicts via gradient normalization and reliability-aware dynamic reweighting. Extensive experiments on multiple industrial datasets demonstrate that VLT outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving superior robustness and generalization under few-shot, noisy, and incomplete-modality settings.